2026 Mid-Year Fund Review: Defined Returns
- 2 days ago
- 6 min read
The first half of 2026 was characterised by an increase in volatility in equity markets due to the Iran war, but overall a continued upward trend in those markets thanks in large part to the rapid growth of AI. The fund has performed as expected and is meeting its return target of 7-8% annualised. It is currently doing this in a relatively low-volatility way thanks in part to its significant downside protection.
Performance summary
Fund up 4.39%, equity markets up around 9%.
Fund’s drawdown in March 2.9% while markets were down around 10%.
Fund’s current low sensitivity to market moves keeping volatility of fund relatively low.
Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value. Returns are net of charges. Source: Atlantic House 30 June 2026.
Overview of the year so far
The first half of 2026 saw global equity markets broadly continue their rally, with the markets that the fund is most exposed to (UK, US and EU) climbing around 9%. This was despite a short and sharp fall of around 10% in March following the beginning of the war in Iran. Exuberance in the technology sector, particularly around AI remained the principal growth theme and outweighed the downward effects and potential inflationary consequences of the Iran war. The fund was up 4.39% for the period, in line with its target 7-8% annualised. At the end of February the fund had the most downside protection it had ever had with the average buffer between market levels and the final autocall barrier being 36.22% and capital protection barrier 40.87%. This means a relatively low sensitivity, or delta, to market moves of around 30%. Indeed, the fund only fell 2.9% in March when markets fell around 10%.
Although markets ended the 6 months solidly up, the war in Iran created some volatility in those markets. An increase in volatility pushes the valuations of the existing autocalls in the fund down a little. But it also improves pricing for new autocalls. During the first half of 2026 every autocall that had its annual observation matured (25 in total), paying out their defined coupons. The market falls in March were not enough to cause any to miss. They have been replaced by new autocalls on attractive terms. In mid-May the managers decided to further increase the downside protection on new autocalls such that a typical recently purchased autocall now has a final barrier of 67% and capital protection barrier of 62%. The average coupon of autocalls in the fund is still relatively high for the Fund’s history at just over 9%.
Outlook for remainder of 2026
Looking forward if markets are flat the current constituents of the fund should return 4.97% in just over half a year (0.58 years). This would comfortably keep the Fund in line with its 7-8% annualised target. Even if markets are down 30% the annualised intrinsic value is 6.68%, highlighting that deep downside protection that the Fund has.
Scenario Analysis | Market Move | -30% | -20% | -10% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% |
3 months | -19.56% | -9.93% | -2.64% | 2.18% | 4.04% | 4.52% | 4.76% | |
1 year | -16.12% | -5.49% | 3.09% | 7.97% | 9.90% | 10.48% | 10.76% | |
2 years | -11.28% | 1.48% | 11.02% | 15.94% | 17.68% | 18.21% | 18.45% | |
3 years | -5.65% | 9.41% | 19.14% | 23.77% | 25.55% | 26.01% | 26.26% | |
Intrinsic Value | ||||||||
Intrinsic NAV Change | 41.42% | 30.18% | 14.26% | 4.97% | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | |
Duration | 5.36 | 3.74 | 1.71 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | |
Intrinsic Value (Annualised) | 6.68% | 7.31% | 8.11% | 8.65% | 8.72% | 8.72% | 8.72% |
The scenarios presented are an estimate of future performance based on current derivative market conditions and are not an exact or reliable indicator. What you get will vary depending on how the market performs and how long you keep the investment. Although the Fund has a medium to long-term objective to deliver an annualised return of 7-8% over the long term, the scenario analysis is calculated over shorter term periods for greater accuracy. The Fund’s actual returns may differ from the estimates shown above and are subject to daily price movement. Future performance may also be subject to taxation, that could change in the future. The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested.
We remain focused on:
Return of 7-8% annualised in anything but the bleakest of equity markets
Achieving that in as predictable a way as possible
Not chasing returns and providing as much downside protection
Jim May, Fund Manager
Key risks
This is a marketing communication. The fund is aimed at advised & discretionary market investors over the long term who have the capacity to tolerate a loss of the entire capital invested or the initial amount. A final investment decision should not be contemplated until the risks are fully considered. A comprehensive list of risk factors is detailed in the Risk Factors Section of the Prospectus and the Supplement of the fund and in the relevant key investor information document (KIID). A copy of the English version of the Supplement, the Prospectus, and any other offering document and the KIID can be viewed at www.atlantichousegroup.com and www.ascenderfundpartners.com. A summary of investor rights associated with an investment in the fund is available in English at www.ascenderfundpartners.com.
Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value.
Equity Risk: The fund has exposure to equity markets. The value of equities can rise and fall.
Counterparty Risk: The risk that a counterparty will not fulfil its payment obligation for a trade, contract or other transaction, on the due date.
Interest Rate Risk: The fund’s investments are sensitive to changes in interest rates.
Operational Risk: The risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people and systems including those relating to the safekeeping of assets or from external events.
Credit Risk: The risk the issuer of the bond fails to make interest or capital payments.
Liquidity Risk: The risk that the fund may be unable to sell an investment readily at its fair market value. In extreme market conditions this can affect the fund’s ability to meet redemption requests upon demand.
Derivatives Risk: The fund is permitted to use certain types of financial derivatives to achieve its objective. The value of these investments can rise and fall depending on the value of the underlying instrument. There is also a risk that the counterparty to these derivatives fails to meet its obligations. For full information on these and other risks, please refer to the fund prospectus and offering documents, including the KID or KIID, as applicable.
Important information
This article is issued by Atlantic House Investments Limited and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to buy or sell shares. It should be read in conjunction with the Fund’s Prospectus, key investor information document (“KIID”) or offering memorandum. Atlantic House Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN 931264. Atlantic House Investments Limited is a Private Limited Company registered in England and Wales, registered number 11962808. Registered Office: One Eleven Edmund Street, Birmingham. B3 2HJ.
The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. Atlantic House Investments Limited has taken reasonable care to ensure the information stated is accurate. However, Atlantic House Investments Limited make no representation, guarantee, or warranty that it is wholly accurate and complete. The information provided in this material is confidential and only for use by its recipient. This material may not be disclosed or referred to any third party or distributed, reproduced, or used for any other purposes without the prior written consent of Atlantic House, any data provider and any other third party whose data is included herein and must be returned on request to Atlantic House and any copies thereof in whatever form destroyed.
The Atlantic House Defined Returns Fund is a sub-fund of Atlantic House UCITS ICAV, an umbrella-type open-ended Irish Collective Asset-management Vehicle (“ICAV”) with segregated liability between sub-funds. Atlantic House UCITS ICAV is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011 (the “UCITS Regulations”) as amended, from time to time. Ascender Fund Partners (Ireland) Limited, trading as Ascender Fund Partners, is a limited Liability company registered under the registered number 579677 under Irish law pursuant to the Companies Act 2014 which is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Its principal office is at Suites 22-26 Morrison Chambers, 32 Nassau Street, Dublin 2, D02 X598 and its registered office is at 7th Floor, Block A, One Park Place, Upper Hatch Street, Dublin 2, D02E762. Ascender Fund Partners acts as management company to Atlantic House UCITS ICAV.