Navigating an uncertain future

Katie Furniss-Brown
Jul 31
6 min read

Updated: Sep 16

Atlantic House Defined Returns

Data as of 16 July 2025

Amongst a backdrop of uncertainty around inflation and interest rates, it’s not clear what the future might look like in markets. With past performance not a reliable source of what’s to come, how easy is it to determine your long-term return expectations from here and how sure are you that you will achieve them?

Evolving global dynamics and elevated volatility may make it significantly harder to achieve consistent excess returns using traditional asset classes. Although capital market assumptions vary across the industry, the prevailing view among asset managers is that medium-term equity returns will be more modest compared to the past decade. Having delivered 7.16% per annum since inception, the long-term return objective of the Defined Returns fund is in line with global equity markets expectations but it can deliver consistent returns in a more predictable way and crucially deliver its objective across a wider range of market outcomes.

Capital Market Annualised Return Expectations

Past performance does not predict future returns.

Source: Atlantic House, 30 May 2025. Blackrock 22 May 2025, https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-zz/insights/charts/capital-market-assumptions. JPM, 2025. Vanguard 25 June 2025, Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts | Vanguard. Invesco 2025, 2025 Invesco Capital Market Assumptions - USD. Pictet 2025, Secular-outlook-2025_WEB_secured.pdf.

If your expectation of equity market returns has become wider and more skewed to lower levels than previously, the Defined Returns fund can narrow the distribution of outcomes and provide a greater return than you may previously have been expecting. By accepting less likely equity downside and predefining your risk and return, the strategy can provide expected long-term equity returns with an increased probability of achieving them.

6-year Annualised Performance Frequency

Past performance does not predict future returns.

Source: Atlantic House, Performance from 4 Nov 2013-16 July 2025

Atlantic House Defined Returns Fund

How does it work?

The fund is designed to deliver 7%-8% pa over the medium to long-term, a return similar to that of long-term equity returns. That return objective has not changed since the fund’s inception, but the risk/return profile can and has.

As a result of higher interest rates, in comparison to much of the fund’s life, the fund is now able to achieve improved terms on the investments in the strategy. This has allowed us to improve the risk return parameters in 3 ways:

1. Indices: Reduce the number of indices each position is linked to

2. Protection: Introduce more protection earlier in the underlying positions

3. Return: Improve the average snowballing annual return.

How has the risk/return profile changed over the last 11 years?

Past performance does not predict future returns.

Source: Atlantic House, 16 July 2025

The Defined Returns Fund offers a lower level of risk for an improved level of potential return. with the added downside protection in flat and falling markets. Looking ahead to 3 years’ time as an example, the fund should achieve a positive return in excess of 6% so long as markets fall no further than 20% from their current levels, whilst also producing a return of over 7% per annum in a flat market. If many asset managers are proved correct this would suggest the fund will keep pace with expected returns in major equity markets whilst providing a better return should equity markets prove weaker than predicted. The fund remains well placed to provide its 7-8% return objective across a wide range of scenarios, with the ability to outperform should equity returns be more subdued than recent years.

Forward Looking Scenario Analysis: 3 Year Returns for the Defined Returns Fund

Past performance does not predict future returns.

Source: Atlantic House, 30 June 2025.

The scenarios presented are an estimate of future performance based on current derivative market conditions and are not an exact or reliable indicator. What you get will vary depending on how the market performs and how long you keep the investment. Although the fund has a medium to long-term objective to deliver an annualised return of 7-8% over the long term, the scenario analysis is calculated over shorter term periods for greater accuracy. The fund’s actual returns may differ from the estimates shown above and are subject to daily price movement. Future performance may also be subject to taxation, that could change in the future. The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested.

Key risks

This is a marketing communication. The fund is aimed at advised & discretionary market investors over the long term who have the capacity to tolerate a loss of the entire capital invested or the initial amount. A final investment decision should not be contemplated until the risks are fully considered. A comprehensive list of risk factors is detailed in the Risk Factors Section of the Prospectus and the Supplement of the fund and in the relevant key investor information document (KIID). A copy of the English version of the Supplement, the Prospectus, and any other offering document and the KIID can be viewed at www.atlantichousegroup.com and www.geminicapital.ie. A summary of investor rights associated with an investment in the fund is available in English at www.gemincapital.ie. Please be aware that past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than originally invested.

Equity Risk: The fund has exposure to equity markets. The value of equities can rise and fall.

Counterparty Risk: The risk that a counterparty will not fulfil its payment obligation for a trade, contract or other transaction, on the due date.

Interest Rate Risk: The fund’s investments are sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Operational Risk: The risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people and systems including those relating to the safekeeping of assets or from external events.

Credit Risk: The risk the issuer of the bond fails to make interest or capital payments.

Liquidity Risk: The risk that the fund may be unable to sell an investment readily at its fair market value. In extreme market conditions this can affect the fund’s ability to meet redemption requests upon demand.

Derivatives Risk: The fund is permitted to use certain types of financial derivatives to achieve its objective. The value of these investments can rise and fall depending on the value of the underlying instrument. There is also a risk that the counterparty to these derivatives fails to meet its obligations.

For full information on these and other risks, please refer to the fund prospectus and offering documents, including the KID or KIID, as applicable.

Important information

Source for all data is Atlantic House Investments, Solactive and Bloomberg as at 16 July 2025, unless stated otherwise. Calendar year performance to 31 December each year.

This document is issued by Atlantic House Investments Limited and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to buy or sell shares. It should be read in conjunction with the Fund’s Prospectus, key investor information document (“KIID”) or offering memorandum. Atlantic House Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN 931264. Atlantic House Investments Limited is a Private Limited Company registered in England and Wales, registered number 11962808. Registered Office: One Eleven Edmund Street, Birmingham. B3 2HJ. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. Atlantic House Investments Limited has taken reasonable care to ensure the information stated is accurate. However, Atlantic House Investments Limited make no representation, guarantee, or warranty that it is wholly accurate and complete. The information provided in this material is confidential and only for use by its recipient. This material may not be disclosed or referred to any third party or distributed, reproduced, or used for any other purposes without the prior written consent of Atlantic House, any data provider and any other third party whose data is included herein and must be returned on request to Atlantic House and any copies thereof in whatever form destroyed.

The Atlantic House Defined Returns Fund is a sub-fund of Atlantic House UCITS ICAV, an umbrella-type open-ended Irish Collective Asset-management Vehicle (“ICAV”) with segregated liability between sub-funds. Atlantic House UCITS ICAV is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011 (the “UCITS Regulations”) as amended, from time to time.

Gemini Capital Management (Ireland) Limited, trading as GemCap, is a limited liability company registered under the registered number 579677 under Irish law pursuant to the Companies Act 2014 which is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Its principal office is at Suites 22-26 Morrison Chambers, 32 Nassau Street, Dublin 2, D02 X598 and its registered office is at 7th Floor, Block A, One Park Place, Upper Hatch Street, Dublin 2, D02E762. GemCap acts as management company to Atlantic House UCITS ICAV.